The Guru Report: Wednesday, April 22

by Hockey Guru

Washington Preserves the One Goal Defeat

Down two games to one. Down two goals to one. Late in the third period.

Sean Avery takes yet another penalty away from the play.

The opportunity for the Capitals to tie the game was there. The powerplay had some chances throughout the game. And on the previous powerplay, the Caps did everything right. But they just couldn't get one past King Henrik.

Three minutes left, now.

A goal here is absolutely necessary, or the season is on the brink.

Under the new rules, the faceoff is automatically in the offensive zone. Why not pull the goalie right now? Make it a 6-on-4. Get an extra body in front of the net. That's the best chance you have, Bruce.

Sure, there's the risk that an empty netter puts you down two, but take your shot when it presents itself. If you go to the bar and the most beautiful girl there wants to leave with you, do you turn her down because it's not closing time?

Nope. Boudreau played it safe. He wasn't ready to sack up. A crucial situation and he didn't send the message to his team that the time is now - it's do or die.

Instead, he can hold his head high and think about how close he was - only losing by one goal. Lamenting how unfortunate that Ovechkin hit the crossbar, about all the posts, blah, blah, blah.

Sometimes a coach just needs to show some guts.


Random Thought

Must Win games in the playoffs.

Teams and coaches prefer to minimize the use of this phrase. It just doesn't make sense anymore. While the regular season is referred to as a marathon - and the playoffs a sprint - wouldn't it be appropriate for a coach to treat every game as a MUST WIN?

Wouldn't the urgency and importance of every shift be emphasized to the players?

If a play-off game is not a MUST WIN, does that make it an OKAY-TO-LOSE game?


An Old-Time Hockey Lesson

Watching the Flames' / Hawks' Game 4 brought to mind the story Wayne Gretzky has told many times, about the Oilers loss to the Islanders in the '83 Cup Finals.

In short, after the loss, the Oilers had to walk past the Islanders dressing room to exit the arena. Edmonton players had expected to see the Islanders celebrating and whooping it up. When they passed the doorway, however, they saw quite a different scene.

Most Islanders' players were still in uniform. Those that were undressed were covered in ice packs. There was no celebration. It resembled more of a M*A*S*H* unit.

Gretzky realized right there, the reason why the Islanders had won. The Oilers, by contrast, hadn't left it all on the ice.

How does that relate to last night's Flames / Hawks game?

Look at the TOI report for the game - particularly for the forwards. For Games 3 and 4. Chicago had a chance to win one of those two games, and take a commanding lead in the series. They chose instead, to keep the legs fresh for later in the series.

Well congrats, Coach Q. There'll be at least 6 games in this series now.


Top 4 forwards in terms of ice time:

Calgary: Iginla, Jokinen, Glencross, Bertuzzi

Chicago: Bolland, Havlat, Pahlsson, Byfuglien


Guess who won both games?

The Guru Report: Monday 4/20

by Hockey Guru


A great night of hockey on Monday. The Guru set the DVR and managed to view all three games in their entirety – almost in real time!

Through the magic of technology, sitting through commercials was unnecessary. The first five minutes of the Montreal-Boston game were watched – then paused – so the Guru could watch the first five minutes of the Rangers-Caps game.

It was hockey bliss.


Boston 4, Montreal 2

The Bruins defense looked shaky throughout much of the game. Whether this was due to bouncing pucks, frayed nerves, or the pressure of playing in Montreal, they simply didn’t handle the puck well, especially around their own net. Had the Canadiens been more opportunistic, they might have scored three or four extra goals.

Sure, Carey Price gave up some juicy rebounds, and the injuries impacted the Habs line-up. I know. But at one point early on, Kovalev had a wide open net to shoot at and he chose to simply dump the puck into the corner (all right, you could argue he was actually shooting at the net, but missing the net by 15 feet, from 15 feet isn’t exactly an “All-Star” calibre effort).


Washington 4, New York 0

Game three unfolded perfectly for Washington. Scoring the first goal of the game is proving to be more important in this series, than in the others. The danger for Washington is that they become complacent or to think that they’ve accomplished something simply by winning this game. Sure, it was a must win game, but they’re still trailing in the series.

The goalie change for Washington was the perfect move, but as the Guru stated in his predictions, it probably should have been made prior to Game 1. Washington is likely still a year away from a serious playoff run. The missing piece is still the goaltender. This season, it's time to find out just what they have, and to allow Varlamov to gain the experience and get a taste, so that he can be better prepared for the future.

Now, this year is not written off by any means – Washington can still make noise in these playoffs, and game 4 is much anticipated, to see if they are ready to compete now (the Guru's hunch is that they may be feeling too good about themselves right now, and that the Rangers and Lundqvist will now have a great chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead).


Calgary 4, Chicago 2

This was hit-a-minute hockey. Not merely riding guys off, but finishing checks with authority all over the ice. Great hockey, great intensity, great drama.

Calgary got a major break on the go-ahead goal to extend their lead, and cruised to the Game 3 victory. This game was so much closer than the score indicated. This has been a physical series, with the teams trying to wear each other out, regardless of the score.

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The Guru Report: Thursday April 16

by Hockey Guru


Boston-Montreal

Great start by the Bruins and when Krejci put the B’s ahead 2-0 – Hockey Guru thought – here we go with another boat race.

But Montreal scored the first “gut goal” of the playoffs. “Gut goals” are the goals that teams score mostly because of desperation, determination and grit. There weren’t too many scoring chances to that point but Montreal desperately needed to answer back and Christopher Higgins scored the third goal of the game. Remarkably it was done 2 minutes after that 2 goal lead was held.

This series will be close and the score will likely be tied or a 1-goal game at all times. It’s how the hockey gods want it to be. It’s Montreal-Boston. It’s awesome!

Whether this series goes 4, 5, 6 or 7 games – these are must-see games.


Detroit-Columbus

With the Bruins-Canadiens game competing for the Hockey Guru’s attention – the occasional flip to check-in on this game showed what the Guru knew. Detroit is an amazing team.

When they have to – they can take their game up a level. They have the skill, they have the experience and they have the heart. They have been champions for a reason.

RJ Umberger is trying to prove he isn’t another John Druce or 1-year playoff wonder – he scores big goals in big games.

Perhaps the most impressive aspect from the box score is that Detroit held Columbus to 2 shots in the third period. At a time when a team is desperately trying to get back into a game – that’s IMPRESSIVE.


Chicago-Calgary

The Hockey Guru did not Tivo the game – so when watching the third period and 12 seconds of overtime – the feelings of regret about missing most of the first two periods eroding the enjoyment of this game.

The Chicago crowd was tremendous and this was an awesome game but there’s not much insight for the Guru to impart.

San Jose-Anaheim

Anaheim has captured the home ice in the series!!!

Many of the readers of that know how the Guru feels about that phrase. But Anaheim winning the first game of this series demonstrates how difficult the Stanley Cup is to win.

Having the best record in the NFL – your team doesn’t even have to play in the first round of the playoffs. Then, you get to face the lowest seeded remaining team at home when you’re rested and they’ve gone through a playoff game the week before.

Losing that first game is a major upset in the NFL.

But in the NHL – the disparity between the 1 and the 8 seed is not the disparity between the 1 and 8 seed in the NCAA tournament.

As a long time fan of Jumbo Joe and defender of his – this year there are no excuses. With San Jose’s regular season – he should be rested, healthy and primed for a run.

Game 1 saw 1 shot on net from Big Joe – and he was a non-factor on most of his 28 shifts. Through the Guru’s eyes (yes they were a bit heavy during this game – and distracted with a teething baby) – San Jose didn’t generate too many quality scoring chances. For the offensive juggernaut they had been – they certainly weren’t in game 1. Credit Anaheim’s defense, credit Randy Carlyle – or blame Joe Thornton.

1 game is not a series – but the questions and the pressure are going to make it harder and harder for San Jose in this series.

It’s often said that until a team loses on its home ice – a “series” hasn’t begun – well then this series has begun – and if San Jose doesn’t respond in game 2 – it could be on its way to being over.



The Guru’s forecast for tonight’s game is put on sunblock for the Philly-Penguins game as the red light should be lit often.

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The NHL Western Conference Preview

by Hockey Guru, Will-he-M and TD O'Dell


After spending all of our time debating the Eastern Conference, we barely have time to scratch the surface out West. Without further ado:


Anaheim (8) at San Jose (1)



Guru: Can't wait for this series. The good news is that it will assure us of doubleheaders, rather than all the games going early. It will be worth staying up late for, but Anaheim doesn't have the goaltending to match Nabokov. And Joe Thorton is a clutch playoff performer (you heard it here first! This will be the year that he proves to be Conn Smythe worthy). Prediction: San Jose advances.

Will: I don't know why but I'm not interested in this series. Anaheim has no business being here and they're going to show it. Sharks will go through this series quickly. Prediction: Sharks in 4.

TD: Somebody’s been eating MY porridge. I mean, this series isn’t too hard or too soft or too hot or too cold. It’s jusssst right. Or maybe this Sens fan simply wants to see the most graphic duck hunt possible – with sharks as the hunters. I guess the image of a shark devouring anything is cool, so a duck really isn’t the most graphically gruesome image imaginable (think shark vs. flame, or shark vs. lightning bolt). Nevertheless, these Ducks are as out-matched as the imagery would suggest. Prediction: San Jose in 5 games.


Columbus (7) at Detroit (2)



Guru: Steve Mason proves yet again that a rookie goalie can't win in the playoffs. Never happened before, won't happen now. Will can confirm this. The Habs have seen promising rookie goalies fall apart under the pressure of the playoffs. Rick Nash is scary good, but Detroit is loaded (except that goalie thing). Detroit can take it up a level, and will. Nash could be helping Team Canada soon. Prediction: Detroit moves on.

Will: A rookie goalie can't win in the playoffs? There are so many things wrong with that statement. Here's a free hockey lesson, Guru. These are the rookie goalies who have led their teams to the Finals, since 1950: Gerry McNeil (Mtl 1950-51), Jacques Plante (Mtl 1953-54), Glenn Hall (Det 1955-56), Don Simmons (Bos 1956-57), Roger Crozier (Det 1965-66, Won Conn Smythe), Ken Dryden (Mtl 1970-71, Won Cup & Conn Smythe), Pete Peters (Phl 1979-80), Andy Moog (Edm 1982-83), Patrick Roy (Mtl 1985-86, Won Cup & Conn Smythe), Mike Vernon (Cgy 1985-86), Ron Hextall (Phl 1986-87, Won Conn Smythe), Cam Ward (Car 2005-06, Won Cup & Conn Smythe). I digress. Now just when I was looking forward to the Jackets playing the Flames, they get passed in the standings. Steve Mason has been on fire all season, pretty much guaranteeing himself the Calder, and making a serious run at the Vezina. The Jackets have a superior man between the pipes and by the time Babcock realizes Osgood shouldn't be in there, the series will be over. Prediction: Jackets in 6.

TD: To be fair to all of the veteran goalies out there, a list of twelve rookies to make the Finals in almost 60 years (or almost 120 goalies in the Finals) might seem like a lot, but how big would the list of rookie goalies that didn’t make the Finals be? Working backwards, you’d have Rinne, Elliott, Quick, Ramo, and Danis. Then you’d have Price, MacDonald, Ellis….The point is, with 4-6 rookies each season, the odds that one of them makes the Finals isn’t that remote. Steve Mason will not be the 13th guy to do it this year, but that’s OK. He’ll do the next best thing. Prediction: Columbus in 6 games.


St. Louis (6) at Vancouver (3)



Guru: Great run St. Louis, (try not to take a step backwards next year), but Roberto Luongo and Mats Sundin will find a way to get Vancouver into Round 2.

Will: I am so keen for this series. The two hottest teams in the NHL going head-to-head. This one is going to be great. I'm not sold on Sundin, as he's been nothing more then a bust in Van-city, recording the worst season of his Hall of Fame career (he posted his worst ever points-per-game and goals-per-game totals). I’m damn glad that he chose not to go to Montreal, but I will admit that I wanted him on the Habs all summer. The only thing that'll keep the Canucks in this series is the phenomenal goaltending that Bobby Lu is sure to provide. I just can't see the Sedins being able to carry the team on their backs. Prediction: Blues in 7.

TD: Back at the All-Star Game, I pointed out to my Avs-lovin’ friends how tightly packed the West had become. They were all lamenting the fact that their team found themselves in 14th place, even after I reminded them of the incredible 1981 turnaround that their franchise had experienced in the second half. Still not impressed, I was forced to bring out the big guns. After Colorado had pulled off back-to-back victories against the two hottest teams at the time (Calgary and Dallas), I boldly offered to wager that the only team below the Avs would, in fact, sneak into 8th place. Whether they thought I wasn’t being serious or if they were concerned about what kind of odds they’d have to give me, the fact that nobody was willing to take my action came as a bit of a relief. Now, these same people refuse to admit that I called St. Louis to leapfrog over six Western teams in two months, when they actually passed 8 teams to grab the 6th seed. All this to say that I have been a big fan of the Blues since I was driving that wagon solo, but now I’m ringing the bell to disembark. Prediction: Vancouver in 5 games.


Calgary (5) at Chicago (4)



Guru: Calgary is not the team it was early in the year. Kiprusoff is not the goalie he was. Chicago is ready now to win. And will. (Way to go out on a limb and predict ZERO upsets in the West).

Will: This series is very reminiscent of the Pens-Sens series, from last year. On the one hand, you have a very young and solid group of players with 2 number one goalies. On the other hand, you have a struggling team since the Trade Deadline (8-11-0), who have an over-worked goalie. I just don't see the Flames being able to compete against the Hawks. Prediction: Hawks in 5.

TD: To those who remember my dust-up with Mother Puckers a few months ago, they can attest to my lack of patience. But how many of you remember the time I locked the Calgary Hitmen from posting messages, for his repeated attempts to get my goad via his insults of Denis Savard and his Hawks? If you can forgive yet another thinly-veiled, self-congratulatory blast from the past, you’ll afford me the opportunity to proclaim another of my early predictions, when I said a year and a half ago that the Hawks would compete for the Cup this Spring. Prediction: Blackhawks in 5 games.


So there you have it people. 24 predictions from the three biggest loudmouths you’ll meet in this league. We also made our picks for each of the subsequent Rounds, which I’ll post shortly. With almost half of the Game 1’s wrapped up as we speak, I thought I should publish this list right away. I have certainly never shied away from long essays, but mapping the layouts has been eating up all of my time this evening. I had hoped to have about ten articles up by now, but I guess I’ll just go ahead and post the Matchups for our pool before getting into the Official Rules, which have basically been laid out already. I just saw New Jersey score, but I assure you I had them all along, so don’t go saying that I only picked them after seeing Game 1. I’ve been wasting spending so much time on this site the past two hours, that I barely even saw any of the games. Now, I’m going to go have a smoke and catch the tail end of tonight’s action.

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