The Guru Report: Wednesday, April 22

by Hockey Guru

Washington Preserves the One Goal Defeat

Down two games to one. Down two goals to one. Late in the third period.

Sean Avery takes yet another penalty away from the play.

The opportunity for the Capitals to tie the game was there. The powerplay had some chances throughout the game. And on the previous powerplay, the Caps did everything right. But they just couldn't get one past King Henrik.

Three minutes left, now.

A goal here is absolutely necessary, or the season is on the brink.

Under the new rules, the faceoff is automatically in the offensive zone. Why not pull the goalie right now? Make it a 6-on-4. Get an extra body in front of the net. That's the best chance you have, Bruce.

Sure, there's the risk that an empty netter puts you down two, but take your shot when it presents itself. If you go to the bar and the most beautiful girl there wants to leave with you, do you turn her down because it's not closing time?

Nope. Boudreau played it safe. He wasn't ready to sack up. A crucial situation and he didn't send the message to his team that the time is now - it's do or die.

Instead, he can hold his head high and think about how close he was - only losing by one goal. Lamenting how unfortunate that Ovechkin hit the crossbar, about all the posts, blah, blah, blah.

Sometimes a coach just needs to show some guts.


Random Thought

Must Win games in the playoffs.

Teams and coaches prefer to minimize the use of this phrase. It just doesn't make sense anymore. While the regular season is referred to as a marathon - and the playoffs a sprint - wouldn't it be appropriate for a coach to treat every game as a MUST WIN?

Wouldn't the urgency and importance of every shift be emphasized to the players?

If a play-off game is not a MUST WIN, does that make it an OKAY-TO-LOSE game?


An Old-Time Hockey Lesson

Watching the Flames' / Hawks' Game 4 brought to mind the story Wayne Gretzky has told many times, about the Oilers loss to the Islanders in the '83 Cup Finals.

In short, after the loss, the Oilers had to walk past the Islanders dressing room to exit the arena. Edmonton players had expected to see the Islanders celebrating and whooping it up. When they passed the doorway, however, they saw quite a different scene.

Most Islanders' players were still in uniform. Those that were undressed were covered in ice packs. There was no celebration. It resembled more of a M*A*S*H* unit.

Gretzky realized right there, the reason why the Islanders had won. The Oilers, by contrast, hadn't left it all on the ice.

How does that relate to last night's Flames / Hawks game?

Look at the TOI report for the game - particularly for the forwards. For Games 3 and 4. Chicago had a chance to win one of those two games, and take a commanding lead in the series. They chose instead, to keep the legs fresh for later in the series.

Well congrats, Coach Q. There'll be at least 6 games in this series now.


Top 4 forwards in terms of ice time:

Calgary: Iginla, Jokinen, Glencross, Bertuzzi

Chicago: Bolland, Havlat, Pahlsson, Byfuglien


Guess who won both games?

The Guru Report: Monday 4/20

by Hockey Guru


A great night of hockey on Monday. The Guru set the DVR and managed to view all three games in their entirety – almost in real time!

Through the magic of technology, sitting through commercials was unnecessary. The first five minutes of the Montreal-Boston game were watched – then paused – so the Guru could watch the first five minutes of the Rangers-Caps game.

It was hockey bliss.


Boston 4, Montreal 2

The Bruins defense looked shaky throughout much of the game. Whether this was due to bouncing pucks, frayed nerves, or the pressure of playing in Montreal, they simply didn’t handle the puck well, especially around their own net. Had the Canadiens been more opportunistic, they might have scored three or four extra goals.

Sure, Carey Price gave up some juicy rebounds, and the injuries impacted the Habs line-up. I know. But at one point early on, Kovalev had a wide open net to shoot at and he chose to simply dump the puck into the corner (all right, you could argue he was actually shooting at the net, but missing the net by 15 feet, from 15 feet isn’t exactly an “All-Star” calibre effort).


Washington 4, New York 0

Game three unfolded perfectly for Washington. Scoring the first goal of the game is proving to be more important in this series, than in the others. The danger for Washington is that they become complacent or to think that they’ve accomplished something simply by winning this game. Sure, it was a must win game, but they’re still trailing in the series.

The goalie change for Washington was the perfect move, but as the Guru stated in his predictions, it probably should have been made prior to Game 1. Washington is likely still a year away from a serious playoff run. The missing piece is still the goaltender. This season, it's time to find out just what they have, and to allow Varlamov to gain the experience and get a taste, so that he can be better prepared for the future.

Now, this year is not written off by any means – Washington can still make noise in these playoffs, and game 4 is much anticipated, to see if they are ready to compete now (the Guru's hunch is that they may be feeling too good about themselves right now, and that the Rangers and Lundqvist will now have a great chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead).


Calgary 4, Chicago 2

This was hit-a-minute hockey. Not merely riding guys off, but finishing checks with authority all over the ice. Great hockey, great intensity, great drama.

Calgary got a major break on the go-ahead goal to extend their lead, and cruised to the Game 3 victory. This game was so much closer than the score indicated. This has been a physical series, with the teams trying to wear each other out, regardless of the score.

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The Guru Report: Wednesday April 15

by Hockey Guru


Opening night of the 2009 Stanley Cup playoffs has come and gone.

The expectations for Round 1 are high in Hockey Guru's mind (again, here I go with the 3rd person thing...) - almost too high and so night 1 is a bit of a let down.

But that's okay - even though there weren't the twists and turns anticipated in the games last night - knowing the playoffs have begun is gratifying in itself.

Opening night, the Eastern Conference saw 2 boat races and a hockey game.

(To clarify for readers that don't get my humour - I know there were 4 hockey games and all were played on frozen water. I know that the machine is actually a zamboni and not a boat).

By calling 3 games boat races - I mean that there was almost as much drama in the game as there is in a boat race. You see, in boating, whoever gets the lead at the start - goes on to win 6 days later or something.

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Pittsburgh-Philadelphia

The Flyers forgot that they are supposed to be healthy this year. The picked up where they left off last year in the Conference finals.

Then Penguins played game 1 almost perfectly - and did so without Malkian or Crosbian performances from their superstars.

This is the NHL though - and a best of seven series. The Flyers have been employing the "rope-a-dope" theory under John Stevens of taking it on the chin in game 1 and showing up for game 2.

While game 2 is not a must win for the Flyers - it is expected to be much more competitive.

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"Boat Race #2"

New Jersey-Carolina

Did I really pick Carolina to advance in this series? As Keyser Soze said - "The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to make the world believe he didn't exist."

These Devils pulled that trick off again (well, almost - the unemployed vampire, aka Tito "TD" O'Dell, believed that the Devils still existed in his prognistication).

With so many bright minds in the hockey community picking the Canes based on their surge and the Devils malaise - last night, Sutter's boys proved that you can turn it back on in the playoffs - and cruised to a 1-0 series lead.

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Washington-New York Rangers

Something about surprise, the unexpected - makes sports so appealing to me.

The "Oh, my - did that just happen" thought goes went through my head as the Rangers built the 3-1 lead against Washington. And then quickly saw the high powered Caps even the score.

In the end, Brandon Dubinsky's snipe was the difference and the Rangers took the home ice advantage in the series away from the Capitals.

The Rangers will now play game 2 at Madison Square Garden. Game 5 will be at MSG.
Should the series go seven - the Rangers will have the decisive game in their barn and have earned the "extra" game at home in the series.

But don't buy tickets yet. You see, the schedule can and will change if the Capitals manage to win a game on the road in the series.

It's almost impossible. Road teams never win games in any sport - especially hockey.

(Again - for those readers that are having some trouble seeing the incredibly high-brow wit and humour in this post - I'm JOKING).

The home ice angle is one of my pet peeves. Home ice is determined going into a series and doesn't change.

Washington lost game 1.

Washington still has the home ice advantage in this series.

They now have to find a way to win one on the road to win the series - but, believe it or not, it is possible. Perhaps you want to see a list of the teams that have come back from 0-1 deficits after losing the first game at home?

Not my forte.

But Ovechkin's forte is goal scoring - and the guy is simply amazing to watch.

What I want to watch is if the Caps have a goalie change heading into game 2. As mentioned, the Hockey Guru would have started Varlamov in the series - as I think he gives a better chance to win - both today and in the future.

The Caps window of opportunity to win a cup is just beginning and Theodore's career is not.

As I recently learned - rookies can win in the playoffs. It may be Varlamov's time.

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The NHL Eastern Conference Preview

by Hockey Guru, Will-he-M and TD O'Dell



I know that you’ve probably heard all this stuff before. Hell, you might even have read these exact words elsewhere. Nevertheless, DJ Tito O’Dell presents the 2009 Playoff Preview Mash Up (Eastside Club Mix). Enjoy.

Montreal (8) at Boston (1)

Hockey Guru: It’s deja vu all over again. The exact rematch of the #1-8 series from 2008, but in a Bizarro world, the Bruins are the one-seed, and Montreal the eight-seed. The odds will be overwhelmingly for the Bruins, but they have had a dream season with minimal adversity. They may be the Rodney Dangerfield of the 2008-09 season - they didn't get too much respect. The Bruins went through the season with playoff intensity, throughout. The Krejci-Ryder-Wheeler line was unbelievable, for a stretch during the season. Krejci was a Top 10 player for a month, but hasn't sniffed that level in some time. Ryder has a history of disappearing and Wheeler is a rookie that may have hit the wall. In my opinion, the Bruins don't have another level to which to raise their game, but their game is already at a high-level and may be enough to make a serious run. However, I'm not a believer. If the Habs were healthy on the blueline, they'd easily be my pick for the series. The "second season" gives them a chance to start over with a clean slate after a tumultuous season. So basically the Guru (I'm now writing in the 3rd person) calls this series a toss-up; a pick'em. If the Bruins get off to a good start and win their home games, and gain some confidence and swagger, it could be over in five. But, the Guru isn't afraid to look stupid (some would argue it comes naturally to him). The belief is that they may have false confidence, thinking that being the number one seed means something in itself, when it doesn't. If you're still reading this, I apologize. If, however, you are reading this because my wife is trying to have me committed, then I'll go voluntarily, if I can have the NHL package. Guru's prognostications are totally wrong, but hopefully they were more entertaining than the countless articles we'll be reading this week. Prediction: Bruins in 7 (this way, if Montreal wins, I can say that I knew it would be close) Prediction: Montreal.

Will-he-M: For the millionth time in NHL history, the Habs and Bruins meet. For some reason, it doesn't matter where Montreal finishes. 1st or 8th, they play the Bruins tough, and win. Remember 2002? Bruins finish 2nd overall in the NHL, meet the Habs, thinking cakewalk. What happens? Bruins lose in 6. Remember 2004? Bruins finish 4th in the NHL standings, play the lowly Habs again. They think they know what to do now. What happens? Bruins blow a 3-1 series lead and Habs move on while Joe Thornton again proves why he can't play in the Playoffs (0 points in 7 games). The Habs’ PP will be fine with young Yannick Weber and old Mathieu Schneider capitalizing on Boston's need to bully the Habs. (The Habs’ PP scored 3 times against the Bruins on Thursday). Last year the Bruins surprised the Habs, but come Game 7, Tim Thomas shat the bed, and Carey Price stood on his head. And with word that Andrei Markov will be ready by Game 1, that alone improves the Habs’ chances greatly. Prediction: Habs in 6.

TD O'Dell: You’re both wrong! Nah – jus’ kidding. I always wanted to say that in a format like this. It’s like we’re sitting beside each other on a panel, discussing this in real time. Cooool. Anyway, yes, these two teams have met a lot over the years. And yes the Habs have dominated. I’m not sure where Vegas has them, but I’d bet it’s somewhere close to “biggest long shot” to come out of Round 1. So who knows? Being a massive homer, I’m probably giving them too much credit, but I too see the Bruins faltering. Prediction: Canadiens in 7.

New York (7) at Washington (2)

Guru: Ovechkin on Broadway. Rangers have the goalie to win but may not have the players in front of the goalie. Capitals have the players to win but may not have the goalie to win. The Guru loves watching the Caps. Mike Green and these Russians named Alex are pretty good hockey players. If only a Russian were in net it would be easy to pick the Caps. The Rangers were boring hockey personified, but since the coaching change, they actually skate and fore check. This could be a wide-open series, with the clear edge in scoring to the Caps and the clear edge in goaltending to the Rangers. Conventional wisdom is that defense wins in the playoffs. Conventional wisdom is to draft your team and hold. Guru likes streaming. Guru likes offense. Guru likes Washington in the series. Prediction: Caps in 5 (I'll be bold here) .

Will: These teams are complete opposites. The Caps have two great forwards, one great defenceman and no goalie. Rangers have several under-achievers on offence and defence, and a goalie who is considered one of the best. This series will be a cakewalk for the Caps, but Lundqvist will give the appearance that the Rangers stood a chance. Prediction: Caps in 5.

TD: If you had asked me, I might have ranked cake waaaay down on the list of most desirable strolling surfaces. Not all the way down near hot coals or broken glass, and not even as low as a new gravel road in bare feet, but certainly below cold wet grass and even knee-high snow. With skates on, cakewalking can only get worse. Forget about Green, and his supposedly adequate defensive abilities, when your next best blue liner is a toss-up between Erskine, Pothier and Jeff Schultz, aren’t you depending a lot upon your goaltender? That’s not even mentioning the 17-18 minutes per game that Theodore will be helped by the tandem of Jurcina-Morrisonn. That said, the Rangers just don’t have the top-end talent to answer almost ten goals from Ovie. Prediction: Capitals in 6.

Carolina (6) at New Jersey (3)

Guru: Based on their histories, this would appear to be a trapping snore fest - a soccer game on ice. Au contraire mon frere, this is 2009 - and both teams have become more aggressive, finishing in the middle of the pack, in terms of goal scoring. Maybe the best thing about this series is it's a first round series and there'll be other games to watch. Seriously, this series seems to be of little interest and would only be rated as the 7th or 8th most interesting series in the 1st Round. But from low expectations, you can be pleasantly surprised. It's like fantasy drafts - sure you're happy with Eric Staal's season this year, but for a 2nd Rounder, you kind of expected it. On the other hand, you’re psyched for 45 goals from Zach Parise in the 5th Round. The Devils were written off before the season. When Brodeur went down, the book was closed. This team is like Jason in the horror movies - they don't go away. But the Guru predicts that Cam Ward will rival Marty Brodeur in this series and that Eric Staal and the Whaler-canes will advance.

Will: This series will be won by goaltending. The greatest of all time, versus the (thus far) one-year (playoff) wonder. I've bet on Brodeur before in the face of adversity and lost. He struggled, to end the season, and I see that continuing. Prediction: Canes in 7.

TD: I was beginning to get worried about the level of consensus in the room until now. I honestly don’t know what I would have said, had the two of you picked the Devils. I just might have abandoned my pick of the East to avoid agreeing with you guys a third time. Thank God that wasn’t necessary. I’m not discouraged by Fat Marty’s lacklustre play of late. The guy should have plenty in the tank after taking his first months-long vacation since he was 10 years old. Prediction: Devils in 4 straight.

Philadelphia (5) at Pittsburgh (4)

Guru: The re-match of the Eastern Conference Finals from a year ago. This time there is no guarantee that the winner gets to play for the Cup. Running out of gas, fingers bleeding, life calling - this one will be quick. The heart wants Pittsburgh, but the head tells me that Philly is going a long way this year. They have a beast of a team to play against for a series. Guru doesn't like going against his heart, but the head says Philly will prevail this time around.

Will: Flyers are vastly over-rated. I have no doubt that they have the forwards to compete, but I question their defence and goaltending. Outside of Timonen and Coburn, who's there? Randy Jones? Matt Carle? Ryan Parent? Andrew Alberts? Not exactly a frightening combination to play against. Biron? Please, the guy's had two mediocre seasons and one good playoff, as a Flyer. He'll crash and burn against the Pens. Prediction: Pens in 6.

TD: I’ll wrap this one up quick – something neither Pennsylvania team will be able to do. Prediction: Penguins in 7 games.



We’ll do a quick run-down of the Western Conference shortly, but we won’t have time to delve into things too deeply.

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